Real Estate Information

July is here and with the usual heat and fireworks, the flags on display we will all remember this June as the best on Arizona record! not only did we have astonishing sales volume but the weather was awesome too! I like Elliott Pollack believe AZ is on the mend, we will be back on our feet within a year and wow what a ride it has been. Recored appreciation and record depreciation it is one for the history books for sure. 

Remember you home buyers out there who are waiting for the right time to buy, it's here! The federal tax credit expires in Dec but you have to be closed escrow by Nov 21st 09! Don't worry though our friends at the federal level are working on things daily to help us get back on course. Have a great fourth everyone!

Home hunting 101. Location, location, location right? In todays market you can afford to line up the shot. Check schools even if you have no kids, in a good sellers market or even a polarizing buyers market a home in the right school district will fetch a handsome price.

When considering buying a home, do ask the neighbors questions they are often the BEST source for information both good and bad. Drive the area at different times of the day just to see who and what comes out in the day and in the night.

Trust your instincts, they seldom ever lie, a good rule of thumb is if the deal seems too good to be true, then it probably is.

Take advantage of the $8000 tax credit NOW! To qualify you have to close escrow before NOV 22 09! If you are not closed and in the home by then it will be too late! Happy Summer 2009!

 

 

 

I meet someone everyday who is worried about what's going to happen with the market, the economy and just life in general. As a Realtor I find much of my job is simply talking people thru tough times. It is going to get better, just hold on as best you can. there are many places who can help you to consolidate your debt and make you debt free. My opinion, get credit cards under control, you need maybe one or two cards in case of emergency that's it. Everything else use your debit card, if your debit runs dry, so does your spending. Is it just that easy? Yes.

Credit cards are a force that can ruin you, you can walk away from a house, but credit cards will come after you. Open Helocs are now becoming a major issue. If you are in a situation and want to talk and just get some good advice free of charge call or write to me. I am sure by the end of the phone call or email we will have you on the path to recovery.

Months ago I told you all that the housing market was unlike the stock market in that in stocks, gains and losses are realized in a day or a week. Housing is like the dawn forcing the darkness to retreat. Slowly but surely homes are being sold. Foreclosures and short sales are getting gobbled up by deal hungry investors.

Once the foreclosures and short sales are absorbed which I think is going to be another good full year to eighteen months of great home shopping to be had in Arizona, the rates are at Historic lows and inventory is terrific. Once all those deals get eaten up guess whats left? Your house and Mine! Investors ever since investing was invented have tried to time the market to capitalize on a bull minded sellers market. The time to buy is now, hold them for a few years and then sell at the next peak! Sounds easy right?

Then why is everyone standing around scratching their heads wondering where the next hot market will spring up!? The answer is easy, do not over buy. House rich and cash poor is a recipe for disaster. Get a home you like and enjoy and can afford and keep it for as long as you want. Do not succumb to any high pressure sales techniques, the right house for you is out there and it is looking for you too.

I get asked every day the same or a similar question..where do you see the housing market going? In my opinion the real estate market is a regional phenomina. Houses in Florida are not going to sell for the same price as we will net in Arizona. As I am only licensed in AZ I can offer expertise for my state only.

In my opinion though, keep your eyes on the Florida housing market, it is the hardest hit state for foreclosures, insurance claims etc. Once the housing stabilizes there  it will be the indicator for the entire country that recovery is underway.

Arizona however since it was hit first, shall recover first and if you ask me and many others, we hit the bottom of the market in Oct 08. That being said we have plenty of inventory to yet absorb, in March 09 we had over 8,000+ resale homes sold (70% were foreclosures and short sales) compared to a year ago 08 2,400+ homes were sold. A very good sign indeed.

I would say there is great opportunity to Buy Homes at ridiculous prices and low interest rates for the next 9-12 months or so, after that the sellers will finally be able to sell and the sellers market will start to ramp up.

Is it freezing where you are today? What is the forecast for tomorrow? In Arizona you need to decide if it is formal shorts or Golf slacks and flip flops are also OK. We have an average of 339 days of sunshine a year and for 8 months of the year it gets no better than Arizona. The market is ripe for the perfect storm, low rates, buyer incentives and plentiful inventory.

Most banks are requiring only three percent down payment and on a 200K home that is only 6K. Rates are totally negotiable but it is important that you get pre-qualified before you start to house hunt. There is nothing worse than finding a home you have only dreamed of and get it for a steal, only to see your financing unwind before you. Most people make the mistake of counting on that last prequal from your last lender who may or may not be in business anymore. Many more still do more damge to their credit by having their credit ran several times a year. You have a window of 30 to 75 days to get your credit ran an a loan established as the banks will be able to see you are doing your homework finding the best bank and terms. People who get their credit ean arbitrarily thru the year are dreamers, and the banks know it, hence the denials.

If you have a lender great, you should still shop them to be sure it is a good deal. Once we have that set up we can really start to look and we will find, that home you only thought was a dream.

 It seems that sometimes the darkness of an economic slowdown will never end until it swallows your money like a pelican gulping down a fish. Well relax, that’s not the way it is. Good times follow tough times - it’s inevitable. They call it the economic cycle, and it’s been around since people started measuring such things. It’s just as important for a business owner to plan for the coming boom, as it was for them to prepare for the recession. But when do you start? How does one know it’s really over?

There are no clear, defining lines from recession to boom. It isn’t like throwing on a light switch in a room. It’s more of a slow, gradual dawn lighting up the eastern sky, taking its time to arrive. We want to find trends, not sudden eruptions from good to bad-we want to go from bad to just a little less bad.

It’s different this time: Sure it is, and the check’s in the mail and you’re my one and only. Don’t believe what you hear from the economic pundits. Economics was invented to make astrology look good. In the late 50s and early 60s we had an economic boom partly based on new technologies like transistors. The “nifty fifty” stocks reigned supreme and surely it was different this time. Then along came the early 70s and the Arab oil embargo. We were going to run out of oil in eight years, they said … it was different this time. Then we had the inflation and high interest rates of the late 80s, stock market crash of 1987, the 90s Internet boom, technology meltdown of 2000 followed by 9/11 and now the sub-prime crisis. Every downturn was followed by an economic boom and vice versa. It’s never “different this time” and this is no exception. So let’s start planning for the inevitable resurgence of economic growth with two questions:

1. Are we at bottom?
2. What business steps should we take if we are entering a recovery period?

OK, let’s look at the first one: Are we at the bottom? To answer that question we must first realize that it’s a regional game more than a national one. Las Vegas may be in a boom while New York is in recession. As of this writing, home prices, which are one economic indicator, reflects this regional disparity. US News and World Report states in their June 3, 2008 edition that home prices are UP 11.8% in Mobile Alabama and 6.7% in Jacksonville, Florida from a year ago. During that same period, the Washington Business Journal’s May 27, 2008 edition states the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home price Index fell nationally by 14.4%.

So to figure out if we’re in a less-bad period, (no one can find the actual, exact bottom) look locally for the signs:

A surge in residential home sales, or at least a drop in the length of time homes stay on the market.
Increase in new construction means builders are experiencing a demand that will have ripple effect on the local economy (think appliances, local building materials outlets, etc…)

Decrease in vacant commercial properties and increase in commercial construction.
Easier credit from local banks
Lower interest rates for mortgages and consumer credit
Decrease in local unemployment
Increase in “help wanted” ads

All these signs, and more, indicate improving economic conditions locally. Once you see these positive signs, it’s time to analyze your finances for the right course to take.

What will it be, well in my humble opinion I think we hit bottom in Arizona in July 08. We will continue along the bottom past the election and into early 09. I do not think we will see 62% appreciation again anytime soon but we will bounce back. Banks and world markets will stabilize, homes that are foreclosing will get bought up and the resales will be more in demand and prices will go back up. Long story short, prices right now are very low, banks will be lowering rates in the coming months and we will be OK people, just hold on. Now for my market perspective.

The stock market has been taking bullets in the past months and rightfully so. On the other plus side as of the date of this post 10/08 the housing market is up 10.7 % in Phoenix. I for one do not agree with the experts who play the blame game. Lets face it the Democrats led the charge with sub prime lending and American dream was perpetuated by the greedy bastards on wall street, lend money to whomever under any circumstances, liars loans or stated loans became the norm. Many lenders jumped in on the refi boom, tearing peoples heads off and not caring that they would never see those people again because there was a line out the door waiting to get in and refi. Easy money and careless spending are we American's specialty and we are constantly looking for that next easy handout. We need to centralize our posture, become the super power that we claim to be and turn our selves and our attention to this country. Put people back to work and lets take this country back from the fat asses on wall street and in Washington. My grandpa once told me "Politicians Love Unarmed Peasants" Arm your selves with intelligence, read the constitution it requires and informed citizenry. The defining moments in peoples lives happen every day, follow my advice help those who need help and be true to yourself. Happy Holidays America!

Many lenders and agents alike all know one thing, the current down payment assisitasnce program is going away. What will we do now? Is it chicken little time or do we have a plan? We have a ton of inventory to sell yet and to shut the valve off would be and is crazy.

Currently Ameridream has a bill on the table in congress HR 6694 that will reauthorize the programs indefinitely. Urge your representatives to make this bill pass so we can continue to offer a real solution to thousands of potential home buyers.

Have a question or want to get or give an opinion? Drop us a line!

Turn off FOX news and CNN, put down the liberal newspapers they will rot your brain. The market ebbs and flows with the times. We have had 12 recessions and have recovered from all of them. We all got fat and lazy and have lost our direction, greed, would be speculators, (flippers) and shifty lenders have tanked our economy. All  bloated inventory is the result of our not paying attention. The biggest criminals still at large in my opinion are the builders and the lenders.

I had a conversation with an Engle homes rep yesterday, they are giving my owner his model leaseback back to him at the end of June. They told me they were selling all of the model furniture off last night in an auction (thurs nite, employess can buy, fri & Sat the public can go) and that they were unaware of where my owners keys are. I was outraged that they would hold an auction with out letting my owner know to see if he would like to come and buy some of the furnishings in his own home. I also said if any of the fixtutres or appliances went missing during their little sale they would be getting sued, they of course rebutted with " we are a professional company and are very good at this" I told them 'no you are not, your company went bankrupt because you do not know what you are doing!" (They went BK in early 2008.) Now my owner has a model home mortgaged for 413K and the only house standing for five blocks is this model, thanks Engle. If you want to rent this home let me know!

As for the market kids here is how it is: We got fat and we all ate well but the FED put us on a diet. We got the stomach sugery, we lost wieght almost overnight, prices have fallen (as have values) and now we are looking at ourselves in the mirror, have we lost enogh fat yet or do we continue to diet? Once that has been determined we will create a stimulous package and it will be another bull market. Hold on, because this market will pass.